Please note, I will be issuing my seasonal forecast this evening. I wont pin it to the front page but I will remind everyone in the day to day forecasts of using the climate forecasts tab on the right hand side to view it.
Forecast for Melbourne, issued 22st October, 4pm.
Tuesday : Fine and sunny. Afternoon cloud, Light N/NE winds.
Min 10 Max 24
Wednesday : Fine and sunny at first, cloud developing with showers and thunderstorms developing late evening, tending to rain areas overnight. Warm with N/NW winds fresh at times. Rainfall : 2 – 5 mm.
Min 16 Max 27.
Thursday : Rain with the risk of thunderstorms, easing to showers during the afternoon. Winds colder SW in the morning. Rainfall 5 – 10mm
Min 15 Max 20
Friday : Cool and cloudy with showers, local hail and thunder and fresh SW winds, easing later. Rainfall 2-5 mm
Min 9 Max 17
Saturday : Cool to cold and cloudy with isolated showers,more frequent in the East, generally clearing later , moderate to fresh SW/S winds easing later. Rainfall 1- 4 mm
Min 8 Max 17
Sunday : Becoming fine and sunny after early drizzle, light winds.
Min 8 Max 19
Monday : Fine and Sunny, light winds.
Min 10 Max 22
Early trend for Cup weekend: Warm, and wet. This is very premature thoughts, it will change. I will provide a much more accurate look at Cup Weekend by Friday 26/10.
Notes on the Weather :
A weak cold front is clearing into the Tasman Sea, a low pressure trough is inland. A moist onshore flow is evident in QLD, and a weak trough lies over the Top End. Over the next few days moisture is going to increase from the NT and QLD, and be forced into the interior of the country. This will activate the inland trough, and will move South.
On Wednesday a strong upper level trough will develop in the bight and interact with this moisture as it moves East. Showers and Thunderstorms will become prevalent mid-week through SA and move into Vic late Wednesday. Rain areas are likely on Thursday through parts of Victoria and NSW, with decent falls of up to 25mm likely. Another burst of cold air will follow on Friday and Saturday for the southern states. The trend beyond that is to become warmer and more humid.