Climate outlook is located under seasonal climate outlooks on the right hand menu.
Forecast for Melbourne, issued 24th October, 6am.
Wednesday : Fine and sunny at first, cloud developing with showers and thunderstorms developing late evening, tending to patchy rain areas overnight in the western parts. Warm with N/NW winds fresh at times. Rainfall : 1-4 mm.
Min 16 Max 28.
Thursday : Patchy rain and isolated thunderstorms, easing to isolated showers during the afternoon. Winds colder SW in the morning. Rainfall 1-5 mm
Min 15 Max 20
Friday : Cool and cloudy with showers, local hail and thunder, tending to rain at times in the eastern and south eastern suburbs, and fresh SW winds, easing later. Rainfall 8-12 mm
Min 9 Max 17
Saturday : Cool to cold and cloudy with isolated showers,more frequent in the East, generally clearing later , moderate to fresh SW/S winds easing later. Rainfall 1 – 3 mm
Min 8 Max 17
Sunday : Becoming fine and sunny after early drizzle, light winds.
Min 8 Max 19
Monday : Fine and Sunny, light winds.
Min 9 Max 23
Tuesday : Warmer and becoming cloudy, possible late shower.
Min 14 Max 28
Early trend for Cup weekend: Warm, and wet. These are very premature thoughts, it will change. I will provide a much more accurate look at Cup Weekend by Friday 26/10.
Notes on the Weather :
An upper level low is moving into the bight from Western Australia. Thick cloud has developed ahead of the low in the pre frontal trough, however will mostly slide South of the country. A moist onshore flow is evident in QLD, and a weak trough lies over the Top End. Moisture is increasing from the North east NT and QLD, and is being forced into the interior of the country. This has activated the inland trough, and will move South.
On Wednesday a strong upper level trough will develop in the bight and interact with this moisture as it moves East. Showers and Thunderstorms will become prevalent mid-week through SA and move into Vic late Wednesday. Rain areas are likely on Thursday through parts of Victoria and NSW, with decent falls of up to 25mm likely. Another burst of cold air will follow on Friday and Saturday for the southern states. The trend beyond that is to become warmer and more humid.