Climate outlook is located under seasonal climate outlooks on the right hand menu.
Forecast for Melbourne, issued 25th October, 5am
Thursday : Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, increasing in the afternoon. Winds colder SW around the middle of the day. Rainfall 3 – 6 mm
Min 15 Max 19
Friday : Cool and cloudy with showers, local hail and thunder, tending to rain at times in the eastern and south eastern suburbs, and fresh SW winds, easing later. Rainfall 8-12 mm
Min 9 Max 17
Saturday : Cool to cold and cloudy with isolated showers,more frequent in the East, generally clearing later , moderate to fresh SW/S winds easing later. Rainfall 1 – 3 mm
Min 8 Max 17
Sunday : Becoming fine and sunny after early drizzle, light winds.
Min 8 Max 19
Monday : Fine and Sunny, light winds.
Min 9 Max 23
Tuesday : Warmer, humid and becoming cloudy, showers and thunderstorms developing. Moderate NE wind.
Min 14 Max 26
Wednesday : Warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cooler change late morning, moderate NE winds, shifting strong and gusty Sw late morning.
Min 16 Max 25
Early trend for Cup weekend: Warm, and wet. These are very premature thoughts, it will change. I will provide a much more accurate look at Cup Weekend by Friday 26/10.
Notes on the Weather :
A lingering low pressure trough is meandering over much of the Northern and Central part of Australia. A moist onshore flow is evident in QLD, and a weak trough lies over the Top End. A strong and vigourous Sw flow is developing in eastern Victoria,and will move NE into Southern NSW tonight. Moisture is increasing from the North east NT and QLD, and is being forced into the interior of the country. This has activated the inland trough, and will move South.
Conditions will begin to become more humid from Monday onwards, with a transition like phase beginning. On Tuesday, a broad low pressure trough stretching from North Qld into NSW will begin to accumualte moisture whilst heading slowly South. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread South, and humidity will increase. By Tuesday and Wednesday the trough will trigger unsettled and humid conditions from Nth QLD all the way down to Western Victoria, before a late change enters from the west.
Cooler conditions will prevail following the passage of the front in Victoria on Thursday.