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Updated Forecast for Melbourne, issued 29th October, 10am.
Monday : Fine and Sunny, light winds.
Min 9 Max 25
Tuesday : Warmer, humid and becoming cloudy, showers and thunderstorms developing, mainly in the eastern areas. Moderate NE wind. Rainfall 1 – 3mm
Min 14 Max 28
Wednesday : Areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms developing late afternoon. A cooler SW change developing
Rainfall 6 – 10mm
Min 16 Max 27
Thursday : Early rain easing to a few showers, clearing later. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds, easing later.
Rainfall 5 – 8 mm
Min 9 Max 18
Friday : Fine, mild to warm and becoming sunny. Light to moderate E/SE winds.
Min 12 Max 23
Saturday : Warm, humid and late afternoon showers. Moderate NE winds
Min 15 Max 28
Sunday : Warm and unsettled. Showers and thunderstorms developing. Light to moderate NE winds.
Min 17 Max 28
Early trend for Cup weekend: Warm on Saturday and Sunday, showers Monday and Tuesday and becoming colder.
Notes on the Weather :
A lingering low pressure trough is meandering over much of the Northern and Central part of Australia. A moist onshore flow is evident in QLD, and a weak trough lies over the Top End. A high pressure system is moving into the Tasman Sea. Moisture is increasing from the North East NT and QLD, and is being forced into the interior of the country. This has activated the inland trough, and will move South.
Conditions will begin to become more humid from Monday onwards, with a transition like phase beginning. On Monday, a broad low pressure trough stretching from North Qld into NSW will begin to accumulate moisture whilst heading slowly South. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread South, and humidity will increase. By Tuesday and Wednesday the trough will trigger unsettled and humid conditions from Nth QLD all the way down to Western Victoria, before a late change enters from the west.
Cooler conditions will prevail following the passage of the front in Victoria on Thursday, quickly clearing for fine conditions on Friday and into the early part of the weekend. Conditions will be warm and become increasingly humid before a very large system develops on the Tuesday of Cup Weekend, with rain and colder weather becoming established.