Forecast for Melbourne, issued 21st December, 4pm.

Saturday : Fine and mild to warm, partly cloudy, with light SE winds.

Min 15   Max 26

Sunday : Fine and sunny at first,  very warm with cloud increasing later and rain developing overnight. Light to moderate N/NE winds ahead of a Sw change at night.  Rainfall 2 – 5 mm

Min 16  Max 34

Monday :  Cooler with  a shower or two clearing.  Light to moderate SE winds.  Rainfall 1- 5 mm

Min 17   Max 26

Tuesday : Fine and partly cloudy, mild to warm with light SE winds.

Min 16  Max 24

Wednesday : Fine warm and sunny, light NE winds.

Min 16  Max 26

Thursday : Showers and thunderstorms developing, humid with light NE winds, and afternoon seabreezes.

Min 18   Max 29

Friday : Humid with rain at times, light winds and afternoon seabreezes.

Min 17    Max 27

Notes on the Weather :   A very active low pressure trough dominates the country, tropical moisture is being advected South into the trough from NW WA, and a high pressure ridge is over SW WA. A cold front is laying across Victoria, with a low pressure trough through NSW.

A cold front has moved through and is now in the Tasman Sea, and a cooler SW wind flow has developed across the state. Friday will also be cool though warm through the North.

By Saturday we will see a clearance to fine and warm weather, with warm to hot conditions developing over Victoria on Sunday. As the day goes on cloud will begin to increase from the west, and on Monday a  weak change with patchy rain will develop across the state. This will contract Eastwards on Xmas day with cooler conditions becoming established and isolated showers quickly clearing in the south.

On Boxing Day the weather will be cool and fine, although there may be some lingering shower activity in the East with a potential blocking pattern possible. This blocking pattern will see troughiness start to develop over NE Victoria late into the week, and spread to remaining districts next Thursday and Friday.